The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched in 2013, began as a primarily Eurasian vision: railways across Central Asia, pipelines through Russia, and ports along the Indian Ocean. Yet more than a decade later, the BRI’s geography has expanded well beyond its original contours, moving into Africa, the Middle East, and the wider Global South. In 2025 China deepened BRI geography engagement in the Gulf and Latin America. What lies ahead in 2026? Explore new alliances, competition, and regional priorities shaping the next wave of BRI projects.
2025 has proven to be a turning point for this geographic expansion. As China sought to stabilize traditional partners in Asia and Africa, it also began to deepen outreach to “non-traditional” BRI regions—the Gulf states and Latin America. These regions, though geographically distant, have become crucial testing grounds for China’s ability to adapt its infrastructure and financing model to local economic strategies.
Looking ahead to 2026, the BRI is poised for an even more complex phase: one shaped by targeted alliances, geopolitical competition, and the rise of new regional hubs.
2025 Signals: China’s Outreach to the Gulf and Latin America
Gulf: Vision 2030 Meets the Belt and Road
In 2025, Beijing made visible strides in the Gulf. Conversations with Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030, as well as the UAE’s push for industrial diversification, saw BRI projects aligned with local blueprints rather than imposed from the outside.
- Saudi Arabia explored Chinese participation in industrial zones and clean energy, looking beyond oil toward logistics and digital services.
- The UAE positioned itself as a logistics and tech hub, with new digital corridors linking Chinese fintech and e-commerce platforms into Gulf free zones.
- Qatar and Oman engaged in smaller but symbolically important BRI-linked projects, often centered on green hydrogen and shipping modernization.
This Gulf turn reflects both China’s hunger for stable energy ties and its recognition that Gulf governments seek industrial upgrading—not just infrastructure loans.
Latin America: A Quiet Expansion
Meanwhile, in Latin America, 2025 saw new countries signing up for deeper cooperation with Beijing. Reuters and The China–Global South Project noted that:
- Argentina expanded cooperation in railways and lithium mining.
- Brazil opened conversations on digital infrastructure and renewable energy partnerships.
- Chile and Peru pursued talks on port expansion and copper supply chains, tightly linked to China’s green energy transition.
Latin America’s appeal lies in its natural resources, agricultural exports, and strategic Pacific/Atlantic trade routes. For Beijing, these are essential inputs for both energy security and the green economy of the future.
BRI Geography: What Regional Governments Want
China may be setting the pace, but host governments are not passive. Across both the Gulf and Latin America, local leaders have made it clear that the old model of debt-heavy infrastructure projects is no longer enough.
Instead, governments now demand:
- Industrialization: Ports and railways are welcome only if they spark manufacturing, logistics zones, and downstream industries.
- Jobs: Local employment and skills transfer are top priorities, particularly in Gulf states aiming to reduce expatriate labor dependence.
- Technology Transfer: Countries want know-how in renewables, AI, and digital platforms, not just physical assets.
- Partnership Alignment: Projects must integrate with local development blueprints (e.g., Saudi Vision 2030, Brazil’s green industrial plan, Peru’s mining reforms).
This shift has made BRI negotiations more complex but also more balanced, with local actors insisting on conditionality, equity stakes, and long-term benefits.
BRI Geography 2026: Who Wins and Why
Looking forward, 2026 will be defined by a more competitive, multi-actor environment. China may have been the first mover, but other global powers are now stepping in.
More Targeted Alliances
Expect Beijing to focus on projects that fit seamlessly into host-country agendas:
- In the Gulf, industrial free zones, clean energy parks, and smart ports.
- In Latin America, lithium supply chains, copper smelting, and digital infrastructure.
This pragmatic alignment is less about “China exporting its model” and more about China embedding itself in local strategies.
Political Competition
As China expands, rival offers will multiply:
- The US and EU are already pitching alternatives like the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the Global Gateway Initiative.
- Gulf monarchies and Latin American democracies alike will play these suitors against each other, seeking better financing terms, governance standards, and technology packages.
Local Buy-In Will Decide Winners
In this environment, projects that secure genuine local buy-in—from governments, businesses, and communities—will thrive. Those that are seen as extractive, opaque, or mismatched with local goals risk backlash, delay, or cancellation.
Example Mini-Case: A 2026 Locomotive
One project that could become emblematic in 2026 is the Ras Al Khair Industrial Port Expansion in Saudi Arabia (hypothetical example drawing from Vision 2030 goals).
- Why it matters: It could serve as a Gulf logistics hub, connecting Chinese-built infrastructure with Saudi industrial diversification efforts.
- Strategic layer: By integrating renewable energy zones and digital logistics, the project ties together China’s strengths with Saudi ambitions.
- Regional impact: If successful, it could become a template for BRI 2.0—projects that are embedded in host strategies, technologically advanced, and geopolitically acceptable.
In Latin America, a parallel case might be the expansion of Peru’s Chancay Port, where Chinese companies are already invested. By 2026, it could emerge as a Pacific hub linking South America directly to Chinese markets, reducing reliance on US-controlled logistics chains.
Policy Tips for Negotiators and Civil Society
For governments and civil society groups engaging with China (or rival suitors), several lessons stand out:
- Demand Alignment: Ensure projects are tied to local economic strategies, not just donor agendas.
- Negotiate Terms: Push for equity stakes, revenue sharing, and local job guarantees.
- Insist on Transparency: Public procurement standards reduce the risk of corruption and improve legitimacy.
- Balance Partnerships: Don’t rely solely on China—leverage competition between suitors to improve terms.
- Monitor Sustainability: Both green standards and community impacts must be built in from the start.
Conclusion
By 2026, the BRI geography outlook will look far different than it did at its launch. BRI geography is defined not only by routes on a map, but by complex negotiations, regional pivots, and competing global offers.
The Gulf and Latin America exemplify this shift: both regions are seeking industrialization, jobs, and technological partnerships, and China is adapting by offering projects aligned with local blueprints. Yet the competition from other powers ensures that no deal is uncontested.
The winners in 2026 will be those countries—and communities—that can leverage the competition, demand better governance, and ensure that BRI projects truly serve local development goals.
In this way, the BRI’s next chapter is not just about China’s choices, but about how regional actors in Riyadh, Brasília, Lima, and beyond negotiate their place in a multipolar economic order.
